ETAFIN Threat Framework
There are many ways to classify dangers that are currently arising to threaten humanity, but we believe that most challenges can be classified within a framework of six threat sectors, five of which cover main areas of human activity, while the last one (Grey Swans) deals with the unconventional low probability, high impact events.
Geopolitics
Throughout history, competition between states and political factions have been a constant threat to human societies but dangers are now evolving into unforeseen configurations.
Economics
Within our lifetime global economy transformed itself more than throughout the rest of the human history combined and the trend is accelerating.
Environment
If the European bee population collapsed, a famine throughout the continent would follow. Aspects of nature which may seem trivial at first could easily be lost to ignorance with irreversible consequences.
Biomedicine
Biomedical sciences are potentially on the brink of another scientific revolution which will change the way we understand health and the human body.
Socioculture
Have you ever considered how much society and cultural norms shifted in the last few decades? A correct assessment of the future of society is needed to avoid unintended and potentially disastrous consequences.
Grey Swans
On 23 July 2012, the Earth barely missed a massive, potentially catastrophic, solar flare. Some threats are especially hard to predict, but we know that they exist.